Our Changing Vocabulary

While it is no surprise that pandemic-specific words, like COVID and vax, have seen dramatic increases in their usage, it is interesting to reflect how some common words have undergone changes in their usage as well. Here is a google trends chart for a few. Words like unmute went through a dramatic jump, but are still at a low level compared to these. What else?

Mapping COVID attitudes

 Check out this fascinating map of Covid on Campus: Instructor Reports by Hannah Alpert-Abrams.

Variants

Stay alert. There is still so much we don't know. The Danes have great data (lots of genome sequencing) and say that the Alpha variant is to be taken seriously. And the concern about Delta in schools seems worth watching.

 

Wish list item

This is an installment in my list of simple things I want to do when we can do things again

 

Walk to the Zimmerli and see The Good Shepherd by Henry Tanner, "the first African-American painter to gain international acclaim."

COVID and design readings

Some pieces on redesigning our environment due to COVID-19

• Restaurants with very little outdoor space have been amazingly creative in shaping new dining spaces
• Different ways to use plexiglass instead of 6 feet spacing
  
• A Dutch proposal for a portable social distancing bench
• Kyle Chayka writes in The New Yorker that Coronavirus will change architecture
  
• On the other hand, Starchitect Norman Foster says it won't change our cities much
• Urban theorist Richard Florida talks about why density is not doomed by COVID-19

 

Maping the potential sports spread of coronavirus

This new feature from ESPN hits the trifecta of COVID-19, sports, and mapping. It uses maps to show the spatial reach of a single college football game. And, by extension, it shows how far and how many places could be touched by the COVID spread from that single game. Their examples are from Tuscaloosa, Lincoln, and Los Angeles.

The maps are fascinating and really make the story.

Mapping out testing sites

According to NJ.com, today's list of COVID-19 testing sites for New Jersey has 113 locations. They are not all open to the public. A couple are not very specific about the location. Some appear to be small and limited in ability while others are large and high volume.

The state relies on alternatives and private companies as part of that equation. Of the 113 listed testing sites, 58 are one of these retail locations:

Rite Aid drive-thru	13
CVS Pharmacy	11
MedExpress Urgent Care	7
MedExpress Urgent Care	7
Walmart	6
AFC Urgent Care	5
Immediate Care	4
PM Pediatrics	3
Patient First	2

UPDATE: CVS has announced that they are expanding to 45 drive-thru sites:
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/05/cvs-expands-drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-to-45-more-nj-locations.html (5/28)


The map below shows all 113 testing sites as points. The locations are generally more concentrated in urban areas than rural. The redlines are Voronoi polygons which calculate the areas closest to each site without regard to population or capability.

Looking closer, the list shows that the state's 4 largest cities only have a seven of the sites:
Newark:       3 sites   7.059 cases
Jersey City:  3 sites   6,709 cases
Paterson:      0 sites   7,007 cases
Elizabeth:    1 sites    5339 cases

That means those four municipalities represent about 9% of the state's residents and nearly 17% of the cases in New Jersey but have about 6% of the testing sites. The disparity is striking. Some of these are counting on larger sites in adjacent towns,  but those without cars might find this challenging. With limited information on capability, it is hard for us to know which sites contribute the most to New Jersey's burden. The map below shows distances from the sites (as the crow flies).

Even with a car, some areas are pretty distant. The map below shows areas within 20 minutes a of all sites, in yellow. Many of the underserved areas in North Jersey are from from other services too, so maybe they won't be surprised. But notice how much of the Jersey Shore is left without easy access - all of LBI is well over 20 minutes. The far ends of the island are over a 90 minute round trip to and from a testing center.

 

  

As the beaches reopen, New Jersey is going to need more testing near those active areas. Both for beachgoers and the many workers in LBI businesses.


I made these today with publicly available data and limited time while moving between other projects. But with more time and better data there is plenty more worth asking. What does the map look like if we remove few of the most selective sites (e.g., front line workers only)? Are the urban clusters of testing sites proportional to the populations in those areas? Do site capabilities change that any? How far do people without cars have to travel to access a walk-up or walk-in site? How does access compare with social vulnerability?

Local rates of reported cases

The latest municipal map from the GeoHealth Lab shows recent activity down in Gloucester and Camden. But definitely keep watching AC as well. The earlier caveats still apply.

COVID-19 in NJ towns

New Jersey has 565 municipalities. Based on the reports I am seeing, there only 10 that still do not appear to be reporting a single case of coronavirus, yet. Altogether these 10 communities represent only about 3,000 people. Three of them, Pine Valley, Tavistock, and Walpack, each have fewer than 20 residents each. Pine Valley Borough CAMDEN Tavistock Borough CAMDEN Cape May Point Borough CAPE MAY Stone Harbor Borough CAPE MAY Shiloh Borough CUMBERLAND Stockton Borough HUNTERDON Harvey Cedars Borough OCEAN Mantoloking Borough OCEAN Elsinboro Township SALEM Walpack Township SUSSEX By April 7th the state had broken 500 municipalities reporting at least one case. On April 15th we had around 541 municipalities with cases. On April 27th we had 550. On May 10th Washington Township, Burlington County, reported a case leaving us with just 10 towns without reported cases.

Getting better

The map of the changes in infection rates is definitely going in the right direction. When it finishes up, you will see blue flecks in Bergen County. That area which was an epicenter is now seeing declines in numbers.

Don't get too comfy, we still have a long ways to go. According to the New Jersey data dashboard, the Garden State still has over 131,000 cases. Based on the JHU COVID Dashboard, there are only about 8 countries (including the US) that have more cases.

This map is part of the ongoing effort at the GeoHealth Lab @ CRSSA to explore alternative ways to see and track patterns of the COVID spread across New Jersey.

Coronavirus by town

 

                             
Hospitalizations are down and the rate of cases is slowing, but the spatial spread continues. There are not many places left in New Jersey that are free from COVID-19. This map shows the rate, by municipality, by date (Cases/100,000).

If we isolate the 20 largest municipalities (by population), the May 1 reported rates still some variability. I've added population numbers (2010) for quick reference. Please remember that these are being made quickly during the outbreak and not with unlimited time to check and confirm. Hamilton Township is in Mercer County.

May 1 rates and 2010 population data

	Reported Cases/100k	2010 Population	Population Density
East Orange City	2277	64270	16395
Gloucester Twp	433	64634	2776
Old Bridge Twp	1142	65375	1690
Union City	4052	66455	51918
Middletown Twp	647	66522	1528
Passaic City	3238	69781	21604
Cherry Hill Twp	626	71045	2939
Brick Twp	1081	75072	2316
Camden City	1015	77344	7394
Clifton City	2568	84136	7361
Trenton City	1427	84913	10317
Hamilton Twp	928	88464	2199
Toms River Twp	1178	91239	1731
Lakewood Twp	1830	92843	3700
Woodbridge Twp	1438	99585	4148
Edison Twp	1290	99967	3263
Elizabeth City	3164	124969	8984
Paterson City	3416	146199	16824
Jersey City	2127	247597	15611
Newark City	1958	277140	10574

NJ Cities with COVD

Going through yesterday's reports on COVID cases (which probably already lag a little), there were 22 cities and towns in New Jersey with over 1,000 cases. Four of those are in Middlesex County alone. For much of our mapping we have focused on rates (cases/100,000), but for these cities, the actual numbers are important. Imagine trying to track that many cases, or even simply trying to contact them. The cases from the 22 municipalities combine to represent 41% of the cases in New Jersey.  Of the 565 municipalities in New Jersey, only about a dozen do not report cases. That leaves the potential for about 550 separate places to watch and address coronavirus in NJ.

Newark, Jersey City, Paterson and Elizabeth are the largest municipalities by population, so it is no surprise seeing them in those same spots on the list. But usually I expect to see Edison and Woodbridge next, so it is interesting to see Passaic with the 5th most cases even though it is the 15th largest by population. Here is the list for "on or close to" April 29th.

Newark     5,300
Jersey City     5,144
Paterson     4,751
Elizabeth     3,953
Union City     2,678
Passaic     2,172
North Bergen Township     2,095
Clifton     2,094
West New York     1,668
Lakewood Township     1,668
Perth Amboy     1,614
Plainfield     1,451
East Orange     1,420
Woodbridge Township     1,404
Union Township     1,404
Edison Township     1,252
Hackensack     1,125
Trenton     1,120
New Brunswick     1,113
Irvington Township     1,112
Toms River Township     1,060
Linden     1,046


The number of cases reported is a fairly one-dimensional representation of the situation (add in uncertainty about reporting, testing, etc. and it gets even tougher). But it is worth noting that while none of these appeared to yet be going down, few are growing nearly as rapidly as they were a week ago. Just remember that these numbers are constantly changing and not something easy to double-check.

Exploring coronovirus over time

The GeoHealth Lab @ CRSSA has been exploring municipal patterns of COVID-19 in New Jersey. With 565 municipalities, this is a fairly detailed look at the movement of the virus across the landscapes of the Garden State. It is fraught with challenges since not all municipalities are reporting these numbers every day, they may not be using consistent definitions, and the municipalities range wildly in area and population. While we are culling these data from a variety of sources - tweets by mayors, county web sites, various newspapers - the reporters at NJ.com have not only been publishing numbers, but they published a great explanation of why you should be wary of these data. In that spirit, these early data visualizations are offered as a rapid response. 

While you should be careful in reading these data, as longitudinal data they display some remarkable patterns. Eventually there will be more carefully checked data that is presented in carefully balanced representations. But as we are currently surrounded by this pandemic, we should see what we can in the moment.  As a simple example, we can start just comparing the reported rates (cases per 100,000 residents) for just a few cities:

Early reports asked why New Brunswick (yellow) wasn't experiencing growth as fast as a few other cities, but the graph shows New Brunswick (blue) catching up with Newark's rate in  recent days. There is also a spatial pattern implied, as the southern cities lagged - it seems that northern New Jersey started first but Trenton is starting to catch up. Will Atlantic City (light blue at the bottom) see a later jump in its rate? The answer to that will have policy implications for the statewide shutdown.

Having suggested that the pattern is spatial, what we need is a map that shows us the changes over time. Here is an animated GIF tracking the municipal data from March 31 to April 27. (If it isn't animated for you, you can download it or refresh this page.)

The first time through you might just notice that the map gets darker. But with a second run through the animation you might notice that it starts with higher rates in Bergen County and spreads West and South. As it does, you can also see that it moves like a wave, washing across both large and small towns.

To see if large cities were having similar experiences, we selected out the 20 largest municipalities in New Jersey by population. For each of these, we graphed their change in reported rates over time. With so many squiggles it is hard to pick out just one town, but the legend shows their rankings and. more importantly, the graph shows that most of them are experiencing similar trends (consistent growth), but at decidedly different rates. Again, don't get lost in details, since these data could still use some polish. But the big pattern can help identify where to watch in the coming days.

Keep an eye out for updates. There is plenty more in the pipeline.

What's next?

For the long term recovery, I am pondering the ideas in The Hammer and The Dance. It was posted on March 10 and has gotten serious attention. Today the author posted a follow up called Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance, Part 1: A Dancing Masterclass, or What WeCan Learn from Countries Around the World. Much of what he is saying is Public Health 101. But he puts it together remarkably well (and I suspect with the support of an impressive staff).

For my students I encourage them to think about: What will it mean for higher education? What will it mean for planning and design? For employment over the next five years?

But I am also curious about what it might mean about the geospatial patterns in COVID-19. And, as we look at other countries, I can't help but notice that are landscapes will not be like theirs. Even those with sprawl do it differently than us. Food access is different. Workplaces are different. Movement across those landscapes is different too. So surely the maps of the roller coaster ride will look different too.

Park safety?

Dezeen reports on a proposed design by Precht that enforces social distancing.

"What would a park look like and how would it function if it takes the rules of social distancing as a design guideline. And what can we learn from a space like this that still has value after the pandemic."

Using Geography in the Fight Against the Pandemic.

Another good story about GIS as one tool in the comprehensive fight against COVID-19 in, Using Geography in the Fight Against the Pandemic. It includes John Snow and a cautious message about using GIS as a complement to other tools and technologies. Most importantly, the article quotes Assistant Professor Jennifer Whytlaw who is a Rutgers alum.

Funny, but not really?

XKCD has done it again